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ErnieZ@PowerOpt Track Record
Using the RadioActive methods outlined in The Blueprint, there were 67 "closed positions" published over the period from September 2007 to July 2017. There are also 5 positions that were opened over the months of September, December, February, July and January that have not been closed as yet and are not included in the results below.

These 67 positions have resulted in the following stats:

Total Positions: 67
# Winning Positions: 34
# Losing Positions: 33 or 49%
Avg. gains on winners: 10.1%
Avg. loss on losers: 5.4%

The results attest to the skewed win / loss returns needed for good risk management. The Trade Simulator Tool was used to generate 100 random trades with these basic statistics. A random run of the Trade Simulator Tool is shown below:

# Wins: 51
# Losses: 49
High Value: $65,093
Low Value: $8,870
Ending Amt: $65,093

The Trade Simulator Tool started with $10,000 for the first investment and then depending on if a win or loss invested the remaining entire sum in the next investment. This process was done 100 times. Each trade was determined to be a win or loss using the win/loss ratio obtained in the actual trades above in conjunction with a random generator. The time between each trade was not taken into consideration with the simulator. But, if you take the average time per trade below and multiply by 100, you will have the time needed to do one trade at a time for 100 trades.

In reality, there would be many trades done in parallel and not just one at a time. But the take away from this simulation should be, over time the compounding effects of a favorable win/loss ratio can be considerable. And it is not necessary to be right on your stock pick more than 50% of the time to be a very successful investor. You just need to limit your losses when you're wrong and let your wins run when you're right. Use the Trade Simulator Tool to compare your win/loss ratio to the results above.

If you would like to subscribe to ErnieZ@PowerOpt and follow Kurt's trades you will have access to the details of the track record which include date, symbols, and income method for all of the trades.


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